Quarterly Barometer – Market Insights v 3 Months Ago

The housing market is always evolving, and every quarter brings fresh insight into how buyers, sellers, and estate agents are feeling about the state of play. Our latest barometer, based on Dataloft by PriceHubble’s September 2025 opinion poll alongside HMRC data, provides a snapshot of sentiment compared with three months ago. What emerges is a picture of a market that has remained surprisingly steady through the summer, even as underlying pressures begin to shape expectations for the months ahead.

Transaction levels held firm through what is typically a quieter period of the year. Summer is rarely the busiest time for the housing market, with school holidays and family priorities often putting moves on hold. Despite this, around half of estate agents reported activity in line with the previous quarter, while about a third noticed a seasonal dip. Importantly, when compared with the same period last year, activity has actually increased, with transactions up 4.3%. This year-on-year growth points to a resilience that continues to underpin the market, even if decision-making is taking longer and buyers are approaching negotiations with greater caution.

One of the most notable developments has been the increase in homes coming onto the market. Fifty-five per cent of agents reported an uplift in new listings compared with three months ago. This is significant because it marks a shift in the balance of power. For several years, the housing market has been dominated by sellers, with limited stock driving intense competition among buyers and pushing prices higher. Now, with supply improving, buyers have more choice and are less likely to feel pressured into bidding wars. The result is a moderation in house price growth and a landscape that is gradually becoming more balanced. Sellers, meanwhile, are finding that simply putting a property on the market is no longer enough. Achieving a sale requires realistic pricing, careful presentation, and an openness to negotiation.

However, while more stock and steady transactions are encouraging, not all the signals are positive. Economic headwinds are creating unease. Inflation remains above the Bank of England’s long-term target, mortgage affordability continues to be a challenge, and there is persistent uncertainty around interest rates. At the same time, speculation over potential tax changes ahead of the Autumn Budget is making some sellers nervous. These pressures are reflected in the rise of property withdrawals, with 41% of agents reporting an increase compared with three months ago and only 14% noting a decline. This suggests that some homeowners are holding back, either because they feel now is not the right time to sell or because they are struggling to achieve the price they had hoped for. Withdrawals can be damaging, eroding confidence and wasting valuable time, and they point to the more tentative mood that has settled across the market.

Looking ahead, expectations have cooled. Earlier in the year, many agents were cautiously optimistic that house prices would continue to edge upwards, albeit at a slower pace. Now, sentiment is more subdued. Half of agents expect prices to remain flat over the next three months, while 45% anticipate a decline. This does not indicate an impending crash, but rather a recalibration. After several years of rapid growth, prices are adjusting to a new normal defined by higher borrowing costs, more cautious buyers, and greater levels of housing supply. Stability, rather than boom or bust, is likely to characterise the coming quarter.

For buyers, these shifts present opportunity. With more homes available, they have greater choice and stronger negotiating power. The frenzied environment of recent years, where fear of missing out often drove decisions, has given way to a calmer market where patience can pay off. For sellers, the message is one of realism. Properties that are competitively priced and well presented are still selling, but ambitious price tags are increasingly resulting in stagnation or withdrawal. Those who recognise the changing dynamics and adapt their approach are the ones most likely to achieve success. For investors, the picture is more complex. Rental demand remains strong across much of the UK, offering solid yields, but prospects for short-term capital growth are more limited. In this environment, careful attention to local markets is essential, as some regions will continue to see stronger demand than others.

The national figures tell an important story, but it is vital to remember that the housing market in the UK is highly fragmented. London continues to struggle with affordability at the upper end, making it particularly sensitive to any changes in taxation. The South East has remained resilient, supported by strong schooling, employment opportunities, and commuter links. The Midlands and the North have shown relatively more buoyant conditions thanks to lower price points and robust demand from both buyers and renters. Scotland and Wales display their own variations, with lifestyle-driven demand in rural and coastal areas still holding firm. These regional differences mean that while the overall direction of travel is towards moderation, opportunities and challenges vary widely depending on location.

The wider economic backdrop cannot be ignored. While inflation has eased from its peak, it remains stubbornly above the government’s target, leaving the Bank of England cautious about signalling any rate cuts. This uncertainty is feeding directly into mortgage affordability, which remains the single biggest hurdle for many buyers, especially first-timers who face high deposit requirements and elevated monthly repayments. The looming Autumn Budget also adds another layer of unpredictability. Any changes to stamp duty, capital gains tax, or inheritance tax could reshape the market, especially at the higher-value end. Until the detail becomes clearer, many buyers and sellers are choosing to wait, adding to the subdued mood.

What makes opinion polls like this one valuable is not only the data but the sentiment they capture. Estate agents are on the front line, seeing how buyers and sellers are behaving day to day, and the picture they paint is of a market that is cautious but not collapsing. Transactions are steady, more homes are available, and while withdrawals are on the rise, the core drivers of activity remain in place. People continue to move because of life events: births, marriages, relocations, downsizing, or simply the need for more space. These underlying factors ensure that the housing market remains active, even if sentiment is more tentative than earlier in the year.

Compared with three months ago, the UK housing market has shifted into a new phase. Buyers are now more in control, sellers are having to adjust their expectations, and predictions for price growth have cooled. Transactions remain resilient, though withdrawals are becoming more common, reflecting the impact of broader economic uncertainty. The months ahead will be shaped as much by government decisions and interest rate policy as by seasonal factors. For now, the message is one of balance: the market is neither booming nor busting, but instead adjusting to a new equilibrium. Those who recognise and adapt to this reality, whether they are buying, selling, or investing, will be best placed to make the most of the opportunities it presents.